Brexit

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EpiGenetik
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29 Jun 2016

Ostermilk wrote:
I'd say it was you missing the point......

....and then the rest of it
You're not even talking about the same facet of the topic here. :mrgreen:

Good Work!

p.s. You keep on going on about the Tories using an EU referendum as bait to win the last election. This wasn't why they won it, it was merely a tactic to stop half of their vote going to the Kippers. The strongest theory on why they won, is that Labour voters didn't bother to turn up, and all polling data supports this theory.

p.p.s. Are people of lower than average intelligence easier to manipulate?

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Gaja
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29 Jun 2016

From the (very) little research I've done, what strikes me as foolish is the gamble with EU membership by politicians in order to gain votes. EU is not gonna let Britain go easily, they'll pay dearly for voting out. Yes Norway has acces to european market, but also allows for free movement of EU citizens.
Now apparently in britain open racism and xenohobia suggest that "the british" (I'm talking about the loud minority I hope) do not want to interact with people who are not british, which won't give them a good outlook on negotiations with EU. They will have to make it *very* unattractive for other countries to follow britains example. And they will, as they have clearly stated yesterday. I see a chance that britain might experience a lot of eceonomical difficulties, given that trading with EU countries will be more expensive and international companies might want to avoid that by moving their businesses to more open places.
Also Scotland might vote out of UK, which would certainly hurt at least a bit, given that the Kingdom would not be united anymore, the Union Jack would have to be changed.
I hope they'll do well though. *fingers crossed
Cheers!
Fredhoven

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EpiGenetik
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29 Jun 2016

Gorgon wrote: They're all racists!
Not all of them, but certainly a very high percentage of them, at least on some subconscious level.
Gorgon wrote: Old, rich, white male racists! :lol:
No, a tiny proportion of them are rich, and you'd be surprised how many of them are the descendents of immigrants themselves. There is no male/female breakdown information that I am aware of, although it is not possible to win an election of any sort without getting a high proportion of the female vote.

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Majestik Monkey
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29 Jun 2016

Brexit / Little Old ENGLAND Just Kicked the [ NEW WORLD ODER ] in the Nutz :puf_bigsmile: :puf_bigsmile: :puf_bigsmile:
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avasopht
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29 Jun 2016

Ostermilk wrote: I'd say it was you missing the point. Are you like the other chap saying the UK electorate is thick and merely influenced by the mainstream media because you don't like the outcome? I wonder what proportion of 17 million are thinking they wished you had been around to lay some of your wisdom on them before they made their foolish mistake.
Given that even experts in various fields don't really know much about the outcomes other than the high risk of negative economic outcomes, I think it's fair to say that nobody really made a well informed decision.

I think we can all agree that at most no more than 42 citizens in the world will have spent more than 10 hours wading through expert analyses, facts and figures to discern likely outcomes in order to make a decision based on what will likely happen rather than making a decision based mostly on biases.

I know I didn't spend 10 hours wading through expert analyses. The most I did was assimilate unbiased analyses from critical thinkers, filtered through a timeline of critical thinkers, including professors and people well involved in politics and my honest thought is that I still know nothing.

And then you have the racists coming out the woodworks, plus the economic impact, Richard Branson alone just cancelled the creation of 2000 new jobs (£55-65m/yr of wages). Friends of mine and even celebrities have been verbally abused so I'll be doubling up on my Krav Maga just in case. We've gone back a few decades.

Any politician worth their salt should have seen this coming. David Cameron is definitely a candidate for the worst British Prime Minister.

On another note: leave voting correlated with lower education. Ironically, places with high immigration voted remain!
Last edited by avasopht on 29 Jun 2016, edited 1 time in total.

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normen
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29 Jun 2016

Norway, Iceland and all the countries that have access to the EU market but are not part of it have to obey to the respective EU laws and implement them locally - without having a voice in the creation as the UK still does. So if the UK was to go for that model they would only LOSE their ability to change these laws, not "gain sovereignty". I don't know where the notion that you can get all the benefits from the EU but have none of the responsibilities comes from.

Otherwise, I think that if the UK wants to go out they should - neither the UK nor the EU will die from that.

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orthodox
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29 Jun 2016

Cameron knew damn well what he was doing. He campaigned for Remain in public because of his commitment before the EU, business and others. Yet he didn't try hard, he failed to bring any convincing arguments in this regard. I guess he actually made this happen on purpose. A storm is coming, and the British ship is better off the EU convoy, where they will just sink each other.

The US is no longer interested in UK's membership in the EU. A sort of collapse on their side is rather beneficial for the US because it would weaken the competitor, diminish its role and cause the investments to run to the US. The UK was needed before as a 'US foot in EU door', in order to influence the EU policy in the times of Schroeder and Chirac, when Europe tried to be independent. Now it's no longer the case, the EU leadership is weak and it can be controlled directly.

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EpiGenetik
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29 Jun 2016

normen wrote:Norway, Iceland and all the countries that have access to the EU market but are not part of it have to obey to the respective EU laws and implement them locally - without having a voice in the creation as the UK still does. So if the UK was to go for that model they would only LOSE their ability to change these laws, not "gain sovereignty". I don't know where the notion that you can get all the benefits from the EU but have none of the responsibilities comes from.

Otherwise, I think that if the UK wants to go out they should - neither the UK nor the EU will die from that.
The UK (well, what's left of it if Scotland and Northern Ireland DO leave) certainly won't die, but there will be shorter term (at least 10 years, but definitely less than 50) suffering and stress for many if not most individuals.

The biggest issue is that the UK has had a very open economy for a long time, and has thus already gravitated to a collection of short term profit models - the 2nd biggest industry in England is financial services, after manufacturing, but most of the GDP actually comes from the service sector. The knock on effect of losing a lot of the financial services to other parts of the EU, as other EU nations deliberately move their interests away from London, is that the economy will have less fuel for the service sector, and then the economy will inevitably start to shrink.

...and yes, of course, there is no prospect of its immigration policy changing at all without first completely killing off the financial services industry. So anyone who did actually vote to Leave on the basis that they don't like immigration was really just harming their own country needlessly.

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Olivier
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29 Jun 2016

orthodox wrote:Cameron knew damn well what he was doing. He campaigned for Remain in public because of his commitment before the EU, business and others. Yet he didn't try hard, he failed to bring any convincing arguments in this regard. I guess he actually made this happen on purpose. A storm is coming, and the British ship is better off the EU convoy, where they will just sink each other.

The US is no longer interested in UK's membership in the EU. A sort of collapse on their side is rather beneficial for the US because it would weaken the competitor, diminish its role and cause the investments to run to the US. The UK was needed before as a 'US foot in EU door', in order to influence the EU policy in the times of Schroeder and Chirac, when Europe tried to be independent. Now it's no longer the case, the EU leadership is weak and it can be controlled directly.
I don't think it's a given that if investments can't be done in the UK they will go to the US instead. The world is a lot bigger then the US and the U.K.
On the part of the US foot in the door.. I think this will definitely change the grip the US have on Europe. How it will change time will tell but I'm hoping this may be one of the areas where it will actually be good for Europe.
:reason: V9 | i7 5930 | Motu 828 MK3 | Win 10

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EpiGenetik
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29 Jun 2016

Just to lighten the mood....


Ostermilk
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29 Jun 2016

Lowlifebware wrote:
normen wrote:Norway, Iceland and all the countries that have access to the EU market but are not part of it have to obey to the respective EU laws and implement them locally - without having a voice in the creation as the UK still does. So if the UK was to go for that model they would only LOSE their ability to change these laws, not "gain sovereignty". I don't know where the notion that you can get all the benefits from the EU but have none of the responsibilities comes from.

Otherwise, I think that if the UK wants to go out they should - neither the UK nor the EU will die from that.
The UK (well, what's left of it if Scotland and Northern Ireland DO leave) certainly won't die, but there will be shorter term (at least 10 years, but definitely less than 50) suffering and stress for many if not most individuals.

The biggest issue is that the UK has had a very open economy for a long time, and has thus already gravitated to a collection of short term profit models - the 2nd biggest industry in England is financial services, after manufacturing, but most of the GDP actually comes from the service sector. The knock on effect of losing a lot of the financial services to other parts of the EU, as other EU nations deliberately move their interests away from London, is that the economy will have less fuel for the service sector, and then the economy will inevitably start to shrink.

...and yes, of course, there is no prospect of its immigration policy changing at all without first completely killing off the financial services industry. So anyone who did actually vote to Leave on the basis that they don't like immigration was really just harming their own country needlessly.
Did you read the statistic where those areas that don't like immigration were more likely to vote in favour of remain? Have you noticed the alarming (re)-emergence of far right-wing politics back into the mainstream of more and more EU member states in the past few years?

Do you remember that Scotland had a referendum on whether to remain as part of the UK? Do you remember what that result was? Scotland is currently part of the UK therefore Scotland's vote counted toward the average in a UK referendum but only served to reduce the overall majority, no?

Do want to continue having referendums until you get the result you want, is that your vision for Britain moving forward?

You are certainly right about the sevice sector so maybe we can now resume actually producing competitive exports and trade rather than serving each other with increasingly expensive coffees whilst we continually speculate on actuals being produced elsewhere.

You say short to mid term suffering and stress, I say long term fruitful exciting challenges but that's a choice we'll all have to make in light of the result.

Referendums are one thing but they do nothing toward showing how much unites us all rather they tend to polarize sides against each other when there are many complex pro's and con's rather than a simplistic either so regardless of the result I'm furious at the bunch of hoons that put the idea forward in the first place but it really is down to us all to unite behind the consequences.

We are all responsible for our own destiny and the biggest hope that I have is that all of this will wake people up to that simple fact at ballot boxes and in the workplace in the future.

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jfrichards
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29 Jun 2016

I get the sense that one of the reasons for Brexit is that there are many British economy people who don't want to get cozier with German capital and prefer to throw all their marbles back in with the US. Sort of reaffirming the long-term alliance cemented during and after WWII. Sort of getting in step with the "Make America White Again" views woven into the Trump world. Having grown up near London in the 50's and 60's, I was shocked (and happy) at the European Union developments, such as taking down some border checkpoints. I fear that any revival of that vile British nationalism, hatred of the French, Italians, Spanish, Indians, Africans, Irish, Poles, Germans, Japanese, Chinese, Greeks, etc, etc, will lead to war and racist attacks. Maybe I should dump my Swedish software and get some Anglo-American DAW?

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EpiGenetik
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29 Jun 2016

Ostermilk wrote: Did you read the statistic where those areas that don't like immigration were more likely to vote in favour of remain?

No. Please provide a reference for this as I haven't seen anything which even remotely resembles this. Please tell me that this wasn't in the Daily Mail or one of the Murdoch rags etc.
Ostermilk wrote: Have you noticed the alarming (re)-emergence of far right-wing politics back into the mainstream of more and more EU member states in the past few years?
Yes, and obviously this affirmation of British Xenophobia will be doing that movement a lot of damage won't it?
Ostermilk wrote: Do you remember that Scotland had a referendum on whether to remain as part of the UK? Do you remember what that result was?
All too well on both counts. However the campaign for not leaving made a whole lot of promises that were not backed up. Currently opinion polls on independence for Scotland range from 59-83% in favour. I was accepting of the original independence result, but the landscape has changed significantly since then.
Ostermilk wrote: Do want to continue having referendums until you get the result you want, is that your vision for Britain moving forward?
It's my vision for Scotland trying to stay still, and not be holding hands with England while it falls flat on its arse, thus taking us with it. Britain is by no means moving forward if it accepts xenophobia.
Ostermilk wrote: You are certainly right about the sevice sector so maybe we can now resume actually producing competitive exports and trade rather than serving each other with increasingly expensive coffees whilst we continually speculate on actuals being produced elsewhere.
I agree. Shame that for decades British governments have continuously damaged the education services to such an extent that pretty much everything manufactured in the UK is substandard, and it will be decades before this is actually a realistic scenario.
Ostermilk wrote: You say short to mid term suffering and stress, I say long term fruitful exciting challenges but that's a choice we'll all have to make in light of the result.
There are plenty of challenges to get excited about certainly. Shame that most of the people who did manage to get educated well enough to fulfil them have to go to work in dead end jobs to pay of their massive student debts.
Ostermilk wrote: Referendums are one thing but they do nothing toward showing how much unites us all rather they tend to polarize sides against each other when there are many complex pro's and con's rather than a simplistic either so regardless of the result I'm furious at the bunch of hoons that put the idea forward in the first place but it really is down to us all to unite behind the consequences.
So you wish for tacit consent? How did that work out for German liberals in the 1930's/40's? Do you seriously believe that England is not already advancing through the right wing spectrum at an alarming rate, and that those who wish to accelerate this march into madness have just been given a major victory? Remember that the consequences include the "spike" in racially motivated crime - should we all unite behind this? I have spike in inverted commas because this may well be a longer term shelf.
Ostermilk wrote: We are all responsible for our own destiny and the biggest hope that I have is that all of this will wake people up to that simple fact at ballot boxes and in the workplace in the future.
....and yet you wish to cut down on the democratic right of the Scots to leave the UK, who have woken up to the realities of Westminster?

Ostermilk
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29 Jun 2016

Lowlifebware wrote:
Ostermilk wrote: Did you read the statistic where those areas that don't like immigration were more likely to vote in favour of remain?

No. Please provide a reference for this as I haven't seen anything which even remotely resembles this. Please tell me that this wasn't in the Daily Mail or one of the Murdoch rags etc.
Ostermilk wrote: Have you noticed the alarming (re)-emergence of far right-wing politics back into the mainstream of more and more EU member states in the past few years?
Yes, and obviously this affirmation of British Xenophobia will be doing that movement a lot of damage won't it?
Ostermilk wrote: Do you remember that Scotland had a referendum on whether to remain as part of the UK? Do you remember what that result was?
All too well on both counts. However the campaign for not leaving made a whole lot of promises that were not backed up. Currently opinion polls on independence for Scotland range from 59-83% in favour. I was accepting of the original independence result, but the landscape has changed significantly since then.
Ostermilk wrote: Do want to continue having referendums until you get the result you want, is that your vision for Britain moving forward?
It's my vision for Scotland trying to stay still, and not be holding hands with England while it falls flat on its arse, thus taking us with it. Britain is by no means moving forward if it accepts xenophobia.
Ostermilk wrote: You are certainly right about the sevice sector so maybe we can now resume actually producing competitive exports and trade rather than serving each other with increasingly expensive coffees whilst we continually speculate on actuals being produced elsewhere.
I agree. Shame that for decades British governments have continuously damaged the education services to such an extent that pretty much everything manufactured in the UK is substandard, and it will be decades before this is actually a realistic scenario.
Ostermilk wrote: You say short to mid term suffering and stress, I say long term fruitful exciting challenges but that's a choice we'll all have to make in light of the result.
There are plenty of challenges to get excited about certainly. Shame that most of the people who did manage to get educated well enough to fulfil them have to go to work in dead end jobs to pay of their massive student debts.
Ostermilk wrote: Referendums are one thing but they do nothing toward showing how much unites us all rather they tend to polarize sides against each other when there are many complex pro's and con's rather than a simplistic either so regardless of the result I'm furious at the bunch of hoons that put the idea forward in the first place but it really is down to us all to unite behind the consequences.
So you wish for tacit consent? How did that work out for German liberals in the 1930's/40's? Do you seriously believe that England is not already advancing through the right wing spectrum at an alarming rate, and that those who wish to accelerate this march into madness have just been given a major victory? Remember that the consequences include the "spike" in racially motivated crime - should we all unite behind this? I have spike in inverted commas because this may well be a longer term shelf.
Ostermilk wrote: We are all responsible for our own destiny and the biggest hope that I have is that all of this will wake people up to that simple fact at ballot boxes and in the workplace in the future.
....and yet you wish to cut down on the democratic right of the Scots to leave the UK, who have woken up to the realities of Westminster?
You clearly haven't even read the contents of this thread have you, yet you persist with the idea that anyone that voted leave must be uneducated or a xenophobe. See Avosopht's earlier post for the demographic breakdown of the poll, such as it is.

Xenophobes generally do not base decisions on evidence rather on impressions and a culture of 'blaming' others. You cllearly didn't read my earlier views on the rise of Xenophobia during the last century courtesy of the reaction to Treaty of Versaille (an idea hatched by some of the best Euro experts after WW1) which directly led to right wing extremism going past the tipping point and we all know how that turned out.

Yes of course I seriously believe there's an alarming advance of the right wing spectrum throughout Europe, and add that it's likely milder in the UK than it is in some EU member states. I believe taking Brussels, the direction where many fingers throughout Europe are pointing, out of that equation removes one of the bigger excuses for that rise at least here in the UK.

So, are you telling me that I'm an uneducated xenophobe for being compelled to vote one way or another (remembering that I didn't actually vote for any party offering an in/out referendum at any point) and then not voting the same way as you?

I see now that I should have heeded the beware in your nick before I engaged...;)

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CharlyCharlzz
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29 Jun 2016

all I am concerned with is will I find a girlfriend and make kids before I die or Am I already in my Sexit ?!?!
So lady's if you need a Eu or Swiss Passport I got the two's LOL :shifty:
It does not die , it multiplies !

 7.101 and I will upgrade maybe this summer .

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orthodox
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29 Jun 2016

CharlyCharlzz wrote:all I am concerned with is will I find a girlfriend and make kids before I die or Am I already in my Sexit ?!?!
So lady's if you need a Eu or Swiss Passport I got the two's LOL :shifty:
Yet to find a lady in this god forgotten forum.

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CharlyCharlzz
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29 Jun 2016

orthodox wrote:
CharlyCharlzz wrote:all I am concerned with is will I find a girlfriend and make kids before I die or Am I already in my Sexit ?!?!
So lady's if you need a Eu or Swiss Passport I got the two's LOL :shifty:
Yet to find a lady in this god forgotten forum.
i know but I count on Luck a Lot , always been a player since I learned I had Luck for two when they found my unborned brother .
they even Told Me I was Lucky it was not a Type of Cancer :lol:
It does not die , it multiplies !

 7.101 and I will upgrade maybe this summer .

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EpiGenetik
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30 Jun 2016

Ostermilk wrote: You clearly haven't even read the contents of this thread have you, yet you persist with the idea that anyone that voted leave must be uneducated or a xenophobe. See Avosopht's earlier post for the demographic breakdown of the poll, such as it is.
Read it. Doesn't make any mention of what you are saying. :) You might want to read it again, I can see the bit that's obviously confused you. Maybe you've struggled with what you were trying to type, I dunno. :D I don't think you really understand that you are a bit on the xenophobic side.
Ostermilk wrote: Xenophobes generally do not base decisions on evidence rather on impressions and a culture of 'blaming' others. You cllearly didn't read my earlier views on the rise of Xenophobia during the last century courtesy of the reaction to Treaty of Versaille (an idea hatched by some of the best Euro experts after WW1) which directly led to right wing extremism going past the tipping point and we all know how that turned out.
......yeah, because Germany got royally bummed by it. This is not in any logical way equivalent to the thousands of different EU legislation agreements. Versailles was a blame culture, and the EU agreements are compromises.
Ostermilk wrote: Yes of course I seriously believe there's an alarming advance of the right wing spectrum throughout Europe, and add that it's likely milder in the UK than it is in some EU member states. I believe taking Brussels, the direction where many fingers throughout Europe are pointing, out of that equation removes one of the bigger excuses for that rise at least here in the UK.
The rise of the UK right wing has fuck all to do with Brussels. It is to do with losers needing someone else to blame for their failures. Your logic leads to the inevitable question "who to blame next?" once we leave the EU. You stand up to the fascists from day one, or you bend over for them. You appear to be lubing yourself up and giving them a cheeky wink.

You seem hell bent on denying that England has some of the worst racism problems in Europe. Granted there are 1 or 2 nations which are worse than England, but that's hardly absolution. Even better than that you reckon that more xenophobic behaviour is in some way a solution to this?

I mean, fucking, SERIOUSLY!?!?!?
Ostermilk wrote: So, are you telling me that I'm an uneducated xenophobe for being compelled to vote one way or another (remembering that I didn't actually vote for any party offering an in/out referendum at any point) and then not voting the same way as you?
Uneducated? I cannot claim to know that. You may be educated, you may not be. I have made no assertions with regards to the state of you CV.
Xenophobe? Yes, you quite clearly are. You display a constant "us and them" mentality. Take a look at your own comments.
Vote whatever fucking way suits you, but don't then tell me that I should just accept it while the country slides into fascism.
Ostermilk wrote:I see now that I should have heeded the beware in your nick before I engaged...;)
I'm not trolling you.
Last edited by EpiGenetik on 30 Jun 2016, edited 1 time in total.

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EpiGenetik
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30 Jun 2016

For the sake of my sanity, and my own workloads, I'm going to leave this topic alone now. It's simply not productive for me to continue, so I'll pick my battles, and note that there is little fruit in continuing here.

Ostermilk
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30 Jun 2016

Lowlifebware wrote:
I don't think you really understand that you are a bit on the xenophobic side.

You stand up to the fascists from day one, or you bend over for them. You appear to be lubing yourself up and giving them a cheeky wink.

Even better than that you reckon that more xenophobic behaviour is in some way a solution to this?
I mean, fucking, SERIOUSLY!?!?!?

Xenophobe? Yes, you quite clearly are. You display a constant "us and them" mentality.

I'm not trolling you.
Really?

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Gorgon
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30 Jun 2016

Lowlifebware wrote:For the sake of my sanity, and my own workloads, I'm going to leave this topic alone now. It's simply not productive for me to continue, so I'll pick my battles, and note that there is little fruit in continuing here.
Racist!!!
"This is a block of text that can be added to posts you make. There is a 255 character limit."

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EpiGenetik
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30 Jun 2016

Gorgon wrote:
Lowlifebware wrote:For the sake of my sanity, and my own workloads, I'm going to leave this topic alone now. It's simply not productive for me to continue, so I'll pick my battles, and note that there is little fruit in continuing here.
Racist!!!
:D

avasopht
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30 Jun 2016

This is exactly why I asked, why do we argue? This referendum is a prime example where the accuracy of your peer's accuracy of thought has serious impact on your own life.

I've always believed that a decision without an understanding of the outcomes is not much of a decision, especially when one chooses not to be armed with the best knowledge available and instead works with the very little they do know.

Ostermilk
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30 Jun 2016

avasopht wrote:This is exactly why I asked, why do we argue? This referendum is a prime example where the accuracy of your peer's accuracy of thought has serious impact on your own life.

I've always believed that a decision without an understanding of the outcomes is not much of a decision, especially when one chooses not to be armed with the best knowledge available and instead works with the very little they do know.
Also precisely why I actively voted against having a referendum in the first place.

You either have to vote one way or the other based on your best shot at reasoning or stick your head in the sand on an issue that has many complex pro's and con's.

Despite your allusion solely to an upper elite that is even capable of equipping itself to make a 'correct' decision you still have to decide. For example if you are a trawlerman on the south coast the wisdom expounded by say Sir Richard Branson isn't going to be what you base your decision on, nor should it.

Given those circumstances the decision has been made, good, bad or indifferent. Nobody is equipped to predict the future either way of course and only time will tell whether the decision was a good or a bad one.

The outcome is democractic not meritocratic.

avasopht
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30 Jun 2016

Ostermilk wrote: Also precisely why I actively voted against having a referendum in the first place.

You either have to vote one way or the other based on your best shot at reasoning or stick your head in the sand on an issue that has many complex pro's and con's.

Despite your allusion solely to an upper elite that is even capable of equipping itself to make a 'correct' decision you still have to decide. For example if you are a trawlerman on the south coast the wisdom expounded by say Sir Richard Branson isn't going to be what you base your decision on, nor should it.

Given those circumstances the decision has been made, good, bad or indifferent. Nobody is equipped to predict the future either way of course and only time will tell whether the decision was a good or a bad one.

The outcome is democractic not meritocratic.
No need to stick one's head in the sand, .. simply employ rational inquiry. And no, was never suggesting an upper elite. What I mean is, there are economic experts who will know far more than the average citizen about the economy, so that expertise needs consideration.

My problem is that the modus operandi is to use one's best uninformed opinion without employing intelligent inquiry. Even simply asking, how can I best know and investigate the ramifications. What are the most likely outcomes based on the best expert understanding we have. Basing one's decision on ignorance alone is insane. Experts aren't elite, they are simply expressing what we would have expressed had we spent the thousands of hours studying the subject, so it would be foolish to ignore.

Ignorant democracy is bad democracy. Willfully ignorant democracy is just plain absurd and ridiculous and offers no actual benefits of democracy. It would even be fair to say that it is feined democracy, which is why it so greatly undermines it in the first place.

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